Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.249165 22.053089 24.050785 26.448735 29.278688 32.551141 36.680998
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.482655 19.822851 22.606747 26.238023 30.972172 37.130082 46.120505
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.531922 18.124110 21.373796 25.894863 32.296782 41.556330 57.211668
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.087305 16.797900 20.335890 25.519847 33.394703 45.947142 70.601897
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.009905 15.785124 19.528789 25.260162 34.527372 50.730066 88.061084
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.165469 14.974670 18.870581 25.066219 35.665999 55.928447 111.471510
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.355628 14.125101 18.045002 24.460249 35.931335 59.543181 135.697012
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.072397 13.980469 18.219560 25.458846 39.316833 71.557189 214.727005
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.547127 13.437463 17.726733 25.248546 40.298301 78.435554 301.932838
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.152847 13.053544 17.437662 25.341481 41.927550 88.300617 497.438121
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.825653 12.743309 17.231481 25.546002 43.860693 100.883193 1072.212237
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.505588 12.420246 16.972410 25.609226 45.489007 114.252872 4265.446995
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.136947 12.004112 16.532763 25.280663 46.112543 124.731541 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.856050 11.708402 16.272551 25.276383 47.612500 141.948425 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.561833 11.375164 15.923086 25.046587 48.449780 157.619594 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.278687 11.044889 15.555703 24.736432 48.991137 173.266332 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.030205 10.757932 15.244902 24.511490 49.750131 193.255846 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.807367 10.501744 14.971749 24.337526 50.643054 218.231726 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.543004 10.166790 14.538425 23.765600 50.097357 228.710290 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.505995 10.201258 14.771947 24.718843 55.109247 335.362604 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.318418 9.977988 14.518914 24.519950 55.931483 391.427344 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.178497 9.828243 14.393216 24.609023 57.928910 505.851415 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.059245 9.707938 14.314979 24.803966 60.477174 714.619532 NaN